MarQuel Mederos vs Nik Lentz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-1-1Record30-12-2
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'8"
69"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Factory XTeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
MarQuel Mederos is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Nik Lentz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1702
If they lose-17→ 1670
If they win+13→ 1683
If they lose-11→ 1659
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1557 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1697 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
MarQuel MederosNik Lentz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
MarQuel Mederos73%
Nik Lentz 27%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes MarQuel Mederos a 73% favorite over Nik Lentz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
MarQuel Mederos holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1687 to 1670, a 17-point edge.
Nik Lentz enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
MarQuel Mederos finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Nik Lentz 63%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.