Combat Edge Intelligence

Mateus Mendonça vs Victor Dias

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

11-3-0Record12-3-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'5"Height5'7"
TBDReachTBD
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Mateus MendonçaNow 1656
If they win+16→ 1672
If they lose-16→ 1640
Victor DiasNow 1653
If they win+16→ 1669
If they lose-16→ 1637

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1585 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1521 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.66
Sig. strikes / min
2.87
40%
Strike accuracy
45%
4.14
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.80
30%
Strike defense
55%
2.54
Takedown avg.
5
27%
Takedown accuracy
42%
56%
Takedown defense
0%
0.42
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Mateus MendonçaVictor Dias
16501700202220232024

Win method breakdown

3 (27%)
KO/TKO
1 (9%)
5 (45%)
Submission
7 (64%)
3 (27%)
Decision
3 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Mateus Mendonça66%
Victor Dias 34%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Mateus Mendonça a 66% favorite over Victor Dias in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1656 vs 1653), separated by just 3 points.

Mateus Mendonça finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Victor Dias 73%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.