Matheus Nicolau vs Mitch Raposo
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-5-1Record11-3-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'6"Height5'5"
66"Reach64"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Nova UniaoTeamRegiment Training Center
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1679
If they lose-16→ 1647
If they win+16→ 1685
If they lose-16→ 1653
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1646 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1585 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Matheus NicolauMitch Raposo
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mitch Raposo71%
Matheus Nicolau 29%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Mitch Raposo a 71% favorite over Matheus Nicolau in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1663 vs 1669), separated by just 6 points.
Matheus Nicolau enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Mitch Raposo enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Matheus Nicolau finishes 53% of wins inside the distance, Mitch Raposo 64%.
Matheus Nicolau carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.