Combat Edge Intelligence

Matheus Scheffel vs Michael Diaz

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

17-11-0Record1-2-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"HeightTBD
TBDReachTBD
262 lbsWeight265 lbs
CM SystemTeamTBD

What's at stake

Matheus Scheffel is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Michael Diaz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Matheus ScheffelNow 1521
If they win+10→ 1531
If they lose-14→ 1507
Michael DiazNow 1474
If they win+27→ 1501
If they lose-21→ 1453

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1611 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1508 · 3 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.33
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
36%
Strike accuracy
TBD
3
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
47%
Strike defense
TBD
0
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
100%
Takedown defense
TBD
0
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Matheus ScheffelMichael Diaz
15001550160020092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

12 (71%)
KO/TKO
1 (100%)
0 (0%)
Submission
0 (0%)
5 (29%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Matheus Scheffel59%
Michael Diaz 41%Elo baseline: 57%

The Combat Edge model makes Matheus Scheffel a 59% favorite over Michael Diaz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).

Matheus Scheffel holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1521 to 1474, a 47-point edge.

Matheus Scheffel enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Matheus Scheffel finishes 71% of wins inside the distance.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.