Combat Edge Intelligence

Matheus Scheffel vs Sean Alvarez

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

17-11-0Record4-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'0"
TBDReachTBD
262 lbsWeight235 lbs
CM SystemTeamRenzo Gracie Jiu-Jitsu

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Matheus ScheffelNow 1521
If they win+12→ 1533
If they lose-12→ 1509
Sean AlvarezNow 1528
If they win+24→ 1552
If they lose-24→ 1504

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1611 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1550 · 7 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.33
Sig. strikes / min
0.89
36%
Strike accuracy
38%
3
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.25
47%
Strike defense
48%
0
Takedown avg.
0
TBD
Takedown accuracy
0%
100%
Takedown defense
0%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Matheus ScheffelSean Alvarez
15501600200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

12 (71%)
KO/TKO
1 (33%)
0 (0%)
Submission
1 (33%)
5 (29%)
Decision
1 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Sean Alvarez52%
Matheus Scheffel 48%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Sean Alvarez a 52% favorite over Matheus Scheffel in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1521 vs 1528), separated by just 7 points.

Matheus Scheffel enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Matheus Scheffel finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Sean Alvarez 67%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.