Matheus Scheffel vs Takashi Sugiura
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-11-0Record1-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height5'11"
TBDReachTBD
262 lbsWeight225 lbs
CM SystemTeamPro Wrestling NOAH
What's at stake
Matheus Scheffel is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Takashi Sugiura carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1531
If they lose-14→ 1507
If they win+29→ 1484
If they lose-19→ 1436
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1611 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1499 · 4 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Matheus ScheffelTakashi Sugiura
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matheus Scheffel61%
Takashi Sugiura 39%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Matheus Scheffel a 61% favorite over Takashi Sugiura in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Matheus Scheffel holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1521 to 1455, a 66-point edge.
Matheus Scheffel enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Takashi Sugiura enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Matheus Scheffel finishes 71% of wins inside the distance.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.