Matt Foki vs Regan Upshaw
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
5-4-0Record0-1-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
5'7"Height6'0"
TBDReach-
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Tant's GymTeamHavoc MMA
What's at stake
Regan Upshaw is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — Matt Foki carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+25→ 1483
If they lose-23→ 1435
If they win+23→ 1501
If they lose-25→ 1453
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1495 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1585 · 1 fights
Tracked stat edges
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Regan Upshaw75%
Matt Foki 25%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Regan Upshaw a 75% favorite over Matt Foki in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Regan Upshaw holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1478 to 1458, a 20-point edge.
Matt Foki enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Matt Foki finishes 40% of wins inside the distance.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.