Combat Edge Intelligence

Matt Hughes vs Sean Brady

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

45-9-0Record19-2-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'9"
73"Reach72"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
HIT SquadTeamRenzo Gracie Philly

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Matt HughesNow 1807
If they win+12→ 1819
If they lose-12→ 1795
Sean BradyNow 1807
If they win+16→ 1823
If they lose-16→ 1791

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1642 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1750 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.14
Sig. strikes / min
3.96
53%
Strike accuracy
55%
1.36
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.05
54%
Strike defense
59%
2.95
Takedown avg.
3.53
50%
Takedown accuracy
53%
35%
Takedown defense
87%
1.18
Submission avg.
0.91

Trajectory

Matt HughesSean Brady
1800185020102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

21 (47%)
KO/TKO
3 (16%)
14 (31%)
Submission
6 (32%)
10 (22%)
Decision
10 (53%)

Combat Edge model read

Sean Brady76%
Matt Hughes 24%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Sean Brady a 76% favorite over Matt Hughes in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Matt Hughes's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1807 vs 1807), separated by just 0 points.

Matt Hughes enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Matt Hughes finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Sean Brady 47%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.