Matt Kovacs vs Patrick Vespaziani
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-19-0Record6-4-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'0"Height6'7"
TBDReach79"
262 lbsWeight242 lbs
Catalyst Fight HouseTeamMMA Spirit
What's at stake
Patrick Vespaziani is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Matt Kovacs carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1527
If they lose-11→ 1503
If they win+15→ 1544
If they lose-17→ 1512
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1495 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1508 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Matt KovacsPatrick Vespaziani
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Patrick Vespaziani61%
Matt Kovacs 39%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Patrick Vespaziani a 61% favorite over Matt Kovacs in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Patrick Vespaziani holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1529 to 1514, a 15-point edge.
Patrick Vespaziani enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Matt Kovacs finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Patrick Vespaziani 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.