Combat Edge Intelligence

Matt Sayles vs Yancy Medeiros

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

8-4-0Record16-9-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'7"Height5'10"
68"Reach75"
155 lbsWeight165 lbs
Alliance MMATeamTeam Hakuilua

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Matt SaylesNow 1613
If they win+16→ 1629
If they lose-16→ 1597
Yancy MedeirosNow 1610
If they win+16→ 1626
If they lose-16→ 1594

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1587 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1672 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.83
Sig. strikes / min
4.36
42%
Strike accuracy
37%
2.81
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.67
62%
Strike defense
47%
0.36
Takedown avg.
0.33
17%
Takedown accuracy
17%
82%
Takedown defense
74%
0.72
Submission avg.
0.65

Trajectory

Matt SaylesYancy Medeiros
1600165020202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

6 (75%)
KO/TKO
8 (50%)
1 (13%)
Submission
4 (25%)
1 (13%)
Decision
4 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Matt Sayles70%
Yancy Medeiros 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Matt Sayles a 70% favorite over Yancy Medeiros in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1613 vs 1610), separated by just 3 points.

Matt Sayles enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Matt Sayles finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Yancy Medeiros 75%.

Yancy Medeiros carries a 7-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.