Combat Edge Intelligence

Matt Serra vs Themba Gorimbo

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Matt Serra
us

Matt Serra

“The Terror”

11-7-0WelterweightUFC

1605Solid

Tale of the tape

11-7-0Record14-7-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'6"Height6'1"
68"Reach77"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Serra-Longo Fight TeamTeamMMA Masters

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Matt SerraNow 1605
If they win+16→ 1621
If they lose-16→ 1589
Themba GorimboNow 1608
If they win+16→ 1624
If they lose-16→ 1592

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1659 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1631 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.98
Sig. strikes / min
2.72
40%
Strike accuracy
61%
2.64
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.32
47%
Strike defense
52%
2.05
Takedown avg.
5.07
21%
Takedown accuracy
66%
39%
Takedown defense
73%
0.89
Submission avg.
0.44

Trajectory

Matt SerraThemba Gorimbo
16001650200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (18%)
KO/TKO
2 (14%)
5 (45%)
Submission
6 (43%)
4 (36%)
Decision
6 (43%)

Combat Edge model read

Themba Gorimbo55%
Matt Serra 45%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Themba Gorimbo a 55% favorite over Matt Serra in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1605 vs 1608), separated by just 3 points.

Themba Gorimbo enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Matt Serra finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Themba Gorimbo 57%.

Themba Gorimbo carries a 9-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.