Combat Edge Intelligence

Matthew O'Rourke vs Minoru Toyonaga

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

0-1-0Record2-5-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
-Height5'11"
-ReachTBD
205 lbsWeight195 lbs
Team Ryano WaterfordTeamTakada Dojo

What's at stake

Matthew O'Rourke is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — Minoru Toyonaga carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Matthew O'RourkeNow 1471
If they win+22→ 1493
If they lose-26→ 1445
Minoru ToyonagaNow 1442
If they win+26→ 1468
If they lose-22→ 1420

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1503 · 1 fightsPre-fight Elo1489 · 7 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Matthew O'RourkeMinoru Toyonaga
140014501999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

0 (0%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
0 (0%)
Submission
0 (0%)
0 (0%)
Decision
2 (100%)

Combat Edge model read

Matthew O'Rourke59%
Minoru Toyonaga 41%Elo baseline: 54%

The Combat Edge model makes Matthew O'Rourke a 59% favorite over Minoru Toyonaga in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).

Matthew O'Rourke holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1471 to 1442, a 29-point edge.

Minoru Toyonaga enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.