Combat Edge Intelligence

Matthew O'Rourke vs Satoshi Honma

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

0-1-0Record4-7-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
-Height6'0"
-ReachTBD
205 lbsWeight204 lbs
Team Ryano WaterfordTeamTBD

What's at stake

Satoshi Honma is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — Matthew O'Rourke carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Matthew O'RourkeNow 1471
If they win+26→ 1497
If they lose-22→ 1449
Satoshi HonmaNow 1493
If they win+22→ 1515
If they lose-26→ 1467

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1503 · 1 fightsPre-fight Elo1511 · 9 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
0
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Matthew O'RourkeSatoshi Honma
150015501999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

0 (0%)
KO/TKO
1 (25%)
0 (0%)
Submission
3 (75%)
0 (0%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Matthew O'Rourke63%
Satoshi Honma 37%Elo baseline: 47%

The Combat Edge model makes Matthew O'Rourke a 63% favorite over Satoshi Honma in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Satoshi Honma's way (47%).

Satoshi Honma holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1493 to 1471, a 22-point edge.

Satoshi Honma 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.