Combat Edge Intelligence

Max Holloway vs Michael Page

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

28-9-0Record25-3-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'3"
69"Reach79"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Gracie TechnicsTeamLondon Shootfighters

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Max HollowayNow 1830
If they win+12→ 1842
If they lose-12→ 1818
Michael PageNow 1827
If they win+12→ 1839
If they lose-12→ 1815

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1791 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1698 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

6.91
Sig. strikes / min
2.39
48%
Strike accuracy
60%
4.61
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.68
59%
Strike defense
57%
0.23
Takedown avg.
0.23
53%
Takedown accuracy
17%
81%
Takedown defense
67%
0.28
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Max HollowayMichael Page
18001850202420252026

Win method breakdown

13 (46%)
KO/TKO
13 (52%)
2 (7%)
Submission
3 (12%)
13 (46%)
Decision
9 (36%)

Combat Edge model read

Max Holloway60%
Michael Page 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Max Holloway a 60% favorite over Michael Page in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1830 vs 1827), separated by just 3 points.

Michael Page enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Max Holloway finishes 54% of wins inside the distance, Michael Page 64%.

Michael Page carries a 10-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.