Combat Edge Intelligence

Max Holloway vs Shavkat Rakhmonov

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

28-9-0Record19-0-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'1"
69"Reach77"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Gracie TechnicsTeamKazakhstan Top Team

What's at stake

Shavkat Rakhmonov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Max Holloway carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Max HollowayNow 1830
If they win+13→ 1843
If they lose-11→ 1819
Shavkat RakhmonovNow 1848
If they win+15→ 1863
If they lose-17→ 1831

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1791 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1690 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

6.91
Sig. strikes / min
3.25
48%
Strike accuracy
60%
4.61
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.17
59%
Strike defense
51%
0.23
Takedown avg.
1.40
53%
Takedown accuracy
26%
81%
Takedown defense
86%
0.28
Submission avg.
1.20

Trajectory

Max HollowayShavkat Rakhmonov
180018502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

13 (46%)
KO/TKO
8 (42%)
2 (7%)
Submission
10 (53%)
13 (46%)
Decision
1 (5%)

Combat Edge model read

Shavkat Rakhmonov53%
Max Holloway 47%Elo baseline: 53%

The Combat Edge model makes Shavkat Rakhmonov a 53% favorite over Max Holloway in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).

Shavkat Rakhmonov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1848 to 1830, a 18-point edge.

Shavkat Rakhmonov enters on a 10-fight win streak.

Max Holloway finishes 54% of wins inside the distance, Shavkat Rakhmonov 95%.

Shavkat Rakhmonov carries a 8-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.