Combat Edge Intelligence

Max Holloway vs Shinya Aoki

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Shinya Aoki
jp

Shinya Aoki

“Tobikan Judan”

48-11-0LightweightONE

1809Great

Tale of the tape

27-9-0Record48-11-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'11"
69"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight154 lbs
Gracie TechnicsTeamParaestra Tokyo

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Max HollowayNow 1817
If they win+12→ 1829
If they lose-12→ 1805
Shinya AokiNow 1809
If they win+12→ 1821
If they lose-12→ 1797

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1794 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1592 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

6.91
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
48%
Strike accuracy
TBD
4.61
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
59%
Strike defense
TBD
0.23
Takedown avg.
TBD
53%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
81%
Takedown defense
TBD
0.28
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Max HollowayShinya Aoki
1800185020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

12 (44%)
KO/TKO
4 (9%)
2 (7%)
Submission
31 (67%)
13 (48%)
Decision
11 (24%)

Combat Edge model read

Max Holloway75%
Shinya Aoki 25%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Max Holloway a 75% favorite over Shinya Aoki in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1817 vs 1809), separated by just 8 points.

Max Holloway finishes 52% of wins inside the distance, Shinya Aoki 76%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.