Combat Edge Intelligence

Melissa Croden vs Sara McMann

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

8-3-0Record14-7-0
BantamweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'5"
69"Reach66"
135 lbsWeight145 lbs
Raven House MMATeamTeam Alpha Male

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Melissa CrodenNow 1623
If they win+16→ 1639
If they lose-16→ 1607
Sara McMannNow 1618
If they win+16→ 1634
If they lose-16→ 1602

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1540 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1609 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.10
Sig. strikes / min
2.26
49%
Strike accuracy
46%
1.83
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.92
53%
Strike defense
48%
1.02
Takedown avg.
4.38
50%
Takedown accuracy
65%
67%
Takedown defense
50%
0
Submission avg.
0.50

Trajectory

Melissa CrodenSara McMann
15501600165020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (75%)
KO/TKO
1 (7%)
1 (13%)
Submission
5 (36%)
1 (13%)
Decision
8 (57%)

Combat Edge model read

Melissa Croden70%
Sara McMann 30%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Melissa Croden a 70% favorite over Sara McMann in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1623 vs 1618), separated by just 5 points.

Melissa Croden finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Sara McMann 43%.

Melissa Croden carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.