Melissa Gatto vs Sarah Alpar
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-3-2Record9-6-0
BantamweightDivisionFlyweight
5'5"Height5'4"
69"ReachTBD
135 lbsWeight125 lbs
MSPTeamAmerican Elite MMA
What's at stake
Melissa Gatto is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — Sarah Alpar carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+23→ 1594
If they lose-25→ 1546
If they win+17→ 1572
If they lose-15→ 1540
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1588 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1551 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Melissa GattoSarah Alpar
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Melissa Gatto62%
Sarah Alpar 38%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Melissa Gatto a 62% favorite over Sarah Alpar in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Melissa Gatto holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1571 to 1555, a 16-point edge.
Sarah Alpar enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Melissa Gatto finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Sarah Alpar 44%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.