Melsik Baghdasaryan vs Tom Niinimaki
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-4-0Record22-8-1
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height5'9"
70"ReachTBD
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Glendale Fighting ClubTeamFinnfighters' Gym
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1640
If they lose-16→ 1608
If they win+12→ 1638
If they lose-12→ 1614
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1595 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1588 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Melsik BaghdasaryanTom Niinimaki
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Melsik Baghdasaryan66%
Tom Niinimaki 34%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Melsik Baghdasaryan a 66% favorite over Tom Niinimaki in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Tom Niinimaki's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1624 vs 1626), separated by just 2 points.
Melsik Baghdasaryan enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Melsik Baghdasaryan finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Tom Niinimaki 68%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.