Combat Edge Intelligence

Michael Johnson vs Yancy Medeiros

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

24-20-0Record16-9-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'10"
73"Reach75"
155 lbsWeight165 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamTeam Hakuilua

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Michael JohnsonNow 1613
If they win+12→ 1625
If they lose-12→ 1601
Yancy MedeirosNow 1610
If they win+16→ 1626
If they lose-16→ 1594

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1666 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1672 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.28
Sig. strikes / min
4.36
40%
Strike accuracy
37%
3.79
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.67
59%
Strike defense
47%
0.58
Takedown avg.
0.33
39%
Takedown accuracy
17%
81%
Takedown defense
74%
0.04
Submission avg.
0.65

Trajectory

Michael JohnsonYancy Medeiros
16002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

10 (42%)
KO/TKO
8 (50%)
2 (8%)
Submission
4 (25%)
12 (50%)
Decision
4 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Michael Johnson60%
Yancy Medeiros 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Michael Johnson a 60% favorite over Yancy Medeiros in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1613 vs 1610), separated by just 3 points.

Michael Johnson finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Yancy Medeiros 75%.

Yancy Medeiros carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.