Miguel Baeza vs Oban Elliott
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-4-0Record12-4-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'2"Height5'11"
74"Reach72"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
MMA MastersTeamShore MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1667
If they lose-16→ 1635
If they win+16→ 1666
If they lose-16→ 1634
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1617 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1578 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Miguel BaezaOban Elliott
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Oban Elliott66%
Miguel Baeza 34%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Oban Elliott a 66% favorite over Miguel Baeza in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Miguel Baeza's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1651 vs 1650), separated by just 1 points.
Miguel Baeza enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Oban Elliott enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Miguel Baeza finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Oban Elliott 50%.
Miguel Baeza carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.