Minoru Toyonaga vs Regan Upshaw
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
2-5-0Record0-1-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
5'11"Height6'0"
TBDReach-
195 lbsWeight205 lbs
Takada DojoTeamHavoc MMA
What's at stake
Regan Upshaw is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — Minoru Toyonaga carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+26→ 1468
If they lose-22→ 1420
If they win+22→ 1500
If they lose-26→ 1452
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1489 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1585 · 1 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Minoru ToyonagaRegan Upshaw
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Regan Upshaw69%
Minoru Toyonaga 31%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Regan Upshaw a 69% favorite over Minoru Toyonaga in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Regan Upshaw holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1478 to 1442, a 36-point edge.
Minoru Toyonaga enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.