Combat Edge Intelligence

Mitchell McKee vs Rafael Estevam

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-0-0Record14-1-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'8"
66"Reach69"
135 lbsWeight128 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamNova Uniao

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Mitchell McKeeNow 1721
If they win+16→ 1737
If they lose-16→ 1705
Rafael EstevamNow 1725
If they win+16→ 1741
If they lose-16→ 1709

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1535 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1578 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
2.10
TBD
Strike accuracy
54%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.59
TBD
Strike defense
47%
TBD
Takedown avg.
6.01
TBD
Takedown accuracy
39%
TBD
Takedown defense
67%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.29

Trajectory

Mitchell McKeeRafael Estevam
1600165017001750202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (55%)
KO/TKO
4 (29%)
0 (0%)
Submission
3 (21%)
5 (45%)
Decision
7 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Mitchell McKee and Rafael Estevam within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1721 vs 1725), separated by just 4 points.

Mitchell McKee enters on a 10-fight win streak.

Mitchell McKee finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Estevam 50%.

Rafael Estevam carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.