Combat Edge Intelligence

Mukhamad Vakhaev vs Tony Johnson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

13-9-1Record18-8-1
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'0"Height6'1"
-ReachTBD
266 lbsWeight265 lbs
Fight Club AkhmatTeamNashville MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Mukhamad VakhaevNow 1609
If they win+16→ 1625
If they lose-16→ 1593
Tony JohnsonNow 1603
If they win+16→ 1619
If they lose-16→ 1587

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1626 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1545 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
2
TBD
Strike accuracy
54%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.73
TBD
Strike defense
31%
TBD
Takedown avg.
2
TBD
Takedown accuracy
22%
TBD
Takedown defense
0%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Mukhamad VakhaevTony Johnson
1600165020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (46%)
KO/TKO
10 (56%)
5 (38%)
Submission
1 (6%)
2 (15%)
Decision
7 (39%)

Combat Edge model read

Mukhamad Vakhaev55%
Tony Johnson 45%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Mukhamad Vakhaev a 55% favorite over Tony Johnson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1609 vs 1603), separated by just 6 points.

Mukhamad Vakhaev enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Tony Johnson enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Mukhamad Vakhaev finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Tony Johnson 61%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.