Combat Edge Intelligence

Mukhamad Vakhaev vs Tsuyoshi Kosaka

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

13-9-1Record28-21-2
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'0"Height5'11"
-ReachTBD
266 lbsWeight214 lbs
Fight Club AkhmatTeamAlliance-Square

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Mukhamad VakhaevNow 1609
If they win+16→ 1625
If they lose-16→ 1593
Tsuyoshi KosakaNow 1607
If they win+12→ 1619
If they lose-12→ 1595

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1626 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1659 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
0.71
TBD
Strike accuracy
55%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
17.82
TBD
Strike defense
54%
TBD
Takedown avg.
1.78
TBD
Takedown accuracy
100%
TBD
Takedown defense
33%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Mukhamad VakhaevTsuyoshi Kosaka
1600165020162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (46%)
KO/TKO
9 (38%)
5 (38%)
Submission
6 (25%)
2 (15%)
Decision
9 (38%)

Combat Edge model read

Mukhamad Vakhaev59%
Tsuyoshi Kosaka 41%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Mukhamad Vakhaev a 59% favorite over Tsuyoshi Kosaka in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1609 vs 1607), separated by just 2 points.

Mukhamad Vakhaev enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Mukhamad Vakhaev finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Tsuyoshi Kosaka 63%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.