Muslim Magomedov vs Paulo Costa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-0-0Record16-4-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'0"
72"Reach72"
206 lbsWeight185 lbs
Academy MMATeamTeam Borracha
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1778
If they lose-16→ 1746
If they win+16→ 1770
If they lose-16→ 1738
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1533 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1747 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Muslim MagomedovPaulo Costa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Muslim Magomedov56%
Paulo Costa 44%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Muslim Magomedov a 56% favorite over Paulo Costa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1762 vs 1754), separated by just 8 points.
Muslim Magomedov enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Paulo Costa enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Muslim Magomedov finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Paulo Costa 81%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.