Combat Edge Intelligence

Naoki Inoue vs Raphael Assunção

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

21-5-0Record28-10-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'8"Height5'5"
71"Reach66"
134 lbsWeight135 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamXtreme Couture

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Naoki InoueNow 1710
If they win+12→ 1722
If they lose-12→ 1698
Raphael AssunçãoNow 1707
If they win+12→ 1719
If they lose-12→ 1695

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1572 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1700 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.67
Sig. strikes / min
3.22
35%
Strike accuracy
43%
3.37
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.50
61%
Strike defense
67%
0
Takedown avg.
1.65
0%
Takedown accuracy
39%
60%
Takedown defense
78%
2.50
Submission avg.
0.25

Trajectory

Naoki InoueRaphael Assunção
1700202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (10%)
KO/TKO
4 (14%)
9 (43%)
Submission
10 (36%)
10 (48%)
Decision
14 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Naoki Inoue71%
Raphael Assunção 29%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Naoki Inoue a 71% favorite over Raphael Assunção in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1710 vs 1707), separated by just 3 points.

Naoki Inoue finishes 52% of wins inside the distance, Raphael Assunção 50%.

Naoki Inoue carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.