Combat Edge Intelligence

Naoki Inoue vs Rinya Nakamura

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

21-5-0Record10-1-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'8"Height5'7"
71"Reach68"
134 lbsWeight136 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamFreelance

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Naoki InoueNow 1710
If they win+12→ 1722
If they lose-12→ 1698
Rinya NakamuraNow 1710
If they win+16→ 1726
If they lose-16→ 1694

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1572 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1596 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.67
Sig. strikes / min
3.53
35%
Strike accuracy
55%
3.37
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.38
61%
Strike defense
67%
0
Takedown avg.
3.72
0%
Takedown accuracy
90%
60%
Takedown defense
100%
2.50
Submission avg.
1.65

Trajectory

Naoki InoueRinya Nakamura
165017002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (10%)
KO/TKO
6 (60%)
9 (43%)
Submission
1 (10%)
10 (48%)
Decision
3 (30%)

Combat Edge model read

Naoki Inoue53%
Rinya Nakamura 47%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Naoki Inoue a 53% favorite over Rinya Nakamura in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1710 vs 1710), separated by just 0 points.

Naoki Inoue finishes 52% of wins inside the distance, Rinya Nakamura 70%.

Naoki Inoue carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.