Nell Ariano vs Rafael Cavalcante
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
6-0-0Record13-7-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'4"Height6'0"
-Reach41,0"
206 lbsWeight205 lbs
Platinum MMA Training CentreTeamTeam Nogueira
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1661
If they lose-24→ 1613
If they win+16→ 1649
If they lose-16→ 1617
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1512 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1644 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Nell ArianoRafael Cavalcante
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nell Ariano79%
Rafael Cavalcante 21%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Nell Ariano a 79% favorite over Rafael Cavalcante in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1637 vs 1633), separated by just 4 points.
Nell Ariano enters on a 6-fight win streak.
Nell Ariano finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Cavalcante 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.