Nell Ariano vs Raffael Cerqueira
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
6-0-0 Record 11-4-0
Light Heavyweight Division Light Heavyweight
6'4" Height 6'3"
- Reach 76"
206 lbs Weight 205 lbs
Platinum MMA Training Centre Team CTJ Judo & Jiu-Jitsu
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1658
If they lose-24→ 1610
If they win+16→ 1644
If they lose-16→ 1612
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Nell Ariano Raffael Cerqueira
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nell Ariano73%
Raffael Cerqueira27%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Nell Ariano a 73% favorite over Raffael Cerqueira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1634 vs 1628), separated by just 6 points.
Nell Ariano enters on a 6-fight win streak.
Raffael Cerqueira enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Nell Ariano finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Raffael Cerqueira 91%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.