Combat Edge Intelligence

Nick Aguirre vs Rafael Rebello

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

7-2-0Record9-4-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'5"
74,0"ReachTBD
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Valle Flow StrikingTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Nick AguirreNow 1574
If they win+16→ 1590
If they lose-16→ 1558
Rafael RebelloNow 1577
If they win+16→ 1593
If they lose-16→ 1561

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1537 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1524 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

0.73
Sig. strikes / min
2.19
34%
Strike accuracy
33%
2.89
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.29
46%
Strike defense
58%
1.16
Takedown avg.
2.82
20%
Takedown accuracy
33%
33%
Takedown defense
75%
0.58
Submission avg.
0.47

Trajectory

Nick AguirreRafael Rebello
155016001650201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

3 (43%)
KO/TKO
1 (11%)
4 (57%)
Submission
6 (67%)
0 (0%)
Decision
2 (22%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Nick Aguirre and Rafael Rebello within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1574 vs 1577), separated by just 3 points.

Nick Aguirre enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Rafael Rebello enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Nick Aguirre finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Rebello 78%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.