Nick Ertl vs Áureo Cruz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-6-0Record3-1-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'10"
TBDReach63"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Cesar Gracie Fight TeamTeamNew Generation MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+17→ 1554
If they lose-15→ 1522
If they win+23→ 1572
If they lose-25→ 1524
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1551 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1522 · 4 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Nick ErtlÁureo Cruz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Áureo Cruz70%
Nick Ertl 30%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Áureo Cruz a 70% favorite over Nick Ertl in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1537 vs 1549), separated by just 12 points.
Nick Ertl enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Nick Ertl finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Áureo Cruz 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.