Nick Maximov vs Rafael Natal
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-2-0Record21-9-1
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'0"
76"Reach76,0"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Nick Diaz AcademyTeamRenzo Gracie Jiu-Jitsu
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1692
If they lose-16→ 1660
If they win+12→ 1685
If they lose-12→ 1661
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1581 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1660 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Nick MaximovRafael Natal
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nick Maximov70%
Rafael Natal 30%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Nick Maximov a 70% favorite over Rafael Natal in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1676 vs 1673), separated by just 3 points.
Nick Maximov enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Rafael Natal enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Nick Maximov finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Natal 57%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.