Combat Edge Intelligence

Nikolas Motta vs Shane Nelson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

15-6-0Record16-7-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height5'9"
70"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Nova UniaoTeamBJ Penn's MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Nikolas MottaNow 1642
If they win+16→ 1658
If they lose-16→ 1626
Shane NelsonNow 1641
If they win+16→ 1657
If they lose-16→ 1625

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1599 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1534 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.64
Sig. strikes / min
1.38
37%
Strike accuracy
31%
4.50
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.84
56%
Strike defense
61%
0
Takedown avg.
1.31
TBD
Takedown accuracy
18%
82%
Takedown defense
55%
0
Submission avg.
1.64

Trajectory

Nikolas MottaShane Nelson
165020122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

10 (67%)
KO/TKO
5 (31%)
0 (0%)
Submission
3 (19%)
5 (33%)
Decision
8 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Nikolas Motta68%
Shane Nelson 32%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Nikolas Motta a 68% favorite over Shane Nelson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1642 vs 1641), separated by just 1 points.

Nikolas Motta finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Shane Nelson 50%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.