Nikolas Motta vs Stevie Ray
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-6-0Record26-13-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height5'10"
70"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Nova UniaoTeamHigher Level MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1658
If they lose-16→ 1626
If they win+16→ 1660
If they lose-16→ 1628
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1599 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1675 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Nikolas MottaStevie Ray
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nikolas Motta53%
Stevie Ray 47%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Nikolas Motta a 53% favorite over Stevie Ray in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Stevie Ray's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1642 vs 1644), separated by just 2 points.
Stevie Ray enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Nikolas Motta finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Stevie Ray 62%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.