Patrick Vespaziani vs Valentijn Overeem
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
6-4-0Record30-32-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'7"Height6'3"
79"ReachTBD
242 lbsWeight234 lbs
MMA SpiritTeamGolden Glory
What's at stake
Patrick Vespaziani is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Valentijn Overeem carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1542
If they lose-19→ 1510
If they win+14→ 1475
If they lose-10→ 1451
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1508 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1535 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Patrick VespazianiValentijn Overeem
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Patrick Vespaziani78%
Valentijn Overeem 22%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Patrick Vespaziani a 78% favorite over Valentijn Overeem in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Patrick Vespaziani holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1529 to 1461, a 68-point edge.
Patrick Vespaziani enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Valentijn Overeem enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Patrick Vespaziani finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Valentijn Overeem 97%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.