Paul Buentello vs Thomas Petersen
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
35-17-0Record11-4-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'1"
TBDReach74"
205 lbsWeight257 lbs
Grudge Training CenterTeamSpartan MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1655
If they lose-12→ 1631
If they win+16→ 1655
If they lose-16→ 1623
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1536 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1616 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Paul BuentelloThomas Petersen
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Thomas Petersen70%
Paul Buentello 30%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Thomas Petersen a 70% favorite over Paul Buentello in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Paul Buentello's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1643 vs 1639), separated by just 4 points.
Paul Buentello finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Thomas Petersen 73%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.