Paulo Costa vs Phil Davis
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
16-4-0Record24-7-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'0"Height6'2"
72"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight205 lbs
Team BorrachaTeamAlliance MMA
What's at stake
Paulo Costa is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Phil Davis carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1769
If they lose-17→ 1737
If they win+13→ 1752
If they lose-11→ 1728
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1747 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1665 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Paulo CostaPhil Davis
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Paulo Costa71%
Phil Davis 29%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Paulo Costa a 71% favorite over Phil Davis in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Paulo Costa holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1754 to 1739, a 15-point edge.
Paulo Costa enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Paulo Costa finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Phil Davis 46%.
Paulo Costa and Phil Davis share 1 common opponent: Yoel Romero.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.