Combat Edge Intelligence

Rafael Alves vs Yancy Medeiros

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

21-12-0Record16-9-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'7"Height5'10"
68"Reach75"
155 lbsWeight165 lbs
Main Street Boxing & Muay ThaiTeamTeam Hakuilua

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Rafael AlvesNow 1613
If they win+16→ 1629
If they lose-16→ 1597
Yancy MedeirosNow 1610
If they win+16→ 1626
If they lose-16→ 1594

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1615 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1672 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.85
Sig. strikes / min
4.36
49%
Strike accuracy
37%
3.30
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.67
58%
Strike defense
47%
0.29
Takedown avg.
0.33
25%
Takedown accuracy
17%
44%
Takedown defense
74%
1.46
Submission avg.
0.65

Trajectory

Rafael AlvesYancy Medeiros
1600202220232024

Win method breakdown

7 (33%)
KO/TKO
8 (50%)
9 (43%)
Submission
4 (25%)
5 (24%)
Decision
4 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Rafael Alves68%
Yancy Medeiros 32%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Rafael Alves a 68% favorite over Yancy Medeiros in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1613 vs 1610), separated by just 3 points.

Rafael Alves enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Rafael Alves finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Yancy Medeiros 75%.

Yancy Medeiros carries a 7-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.