Combat Edge Intelligence

Rafael Carino vs Sean Rose

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

2-1-1Record2-2-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'8"Height6'4"
TBDReachN/A
245 lbsWeight264 lbs
Nova UniaoTeamTBD

What's at stake

Rafael Carino is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — Sean Rose carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Rafael CarinoNow 1500
If they win+22→ 1522
If they lose-26→ 1474
Sean RoseNow 1472
If they win+26→ 1498
If they lose-22→ 1450

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1511 · 3 fightsPre-fight Elo1501 · 5 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
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Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Rafael CarinoSean Rose
14501500200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

1 (50%)
KO/TKO
2 (100%)
1 (50%)
Submission
0 (0%)
0 (0%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Sean Rose56%
Rafael Carino 44%Elo baseline: 46%

The Combat Edge model makes Sean Rose a 56% favorite over Rafael Carino in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Rafael Carino's way (46%).

Rafael Carino holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1500 to 1472, a 28-point edge.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.