Combat Edge Intelligence

Rafael Cavalcante vs Raffael Cerqueira

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

13-7-0Record11-4-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'0"Height6'3"
41,0"Reach76"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Team NogueiraTeamCTJ Judo & Jiu-Jitsu

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Rafael CavalcanteNow 1633
If they win+16→ 1649
If they lose-16→ 1617
Raffael CerqueiraNow 1628
If they win+16→ 1644
If they lose-16→ 1612

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1644 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1554 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.71
Sig. strikes / min
1.61
53%
Strike accuracy
45%
3.62
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.88
50%
Strike defense
37%
0.60
Takedown avg.
0
40%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
64%
Takedown defense
40%
0.15
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Rafael CavalcanteRaffael Cerqueira
165017002016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

13 (100%)
KO/TKO
8 (73%)
0 (0%)
Submission
2 (18%)
0 (0%)
Decision
1 (9%)

Combat Edge model read

Raffael Cerqueira60%
Rafael Cavalcante 40%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Raffael Cerqueira a 60% favorite over Rafael Cavalcante in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Rafael Cavalcante's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1633 vs 1628), separated by just 5 points.

Raffael Cerqueira enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Rafael Cavalcante finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Raffael Cerqueira 91%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.