Combat Edge Intelligence

Rafael do Nascimento vs Shane Campbell

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-3-0Record24-8-0
BantamweightDivisionLightweight
5'4"Height6'0"
70"Reach71,0"
135 lbsWeight155 lbs
X-GymTeamShaolin Muay Thai

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Rafael do NascimentoNow 1635
If they win+16→ 1651
If they lose-16→ 1619
Shane CampbellNow 1634
If they win+12→ 1646
If they lose-12→ 1622

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1523 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1532 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
3.99
TBD
Strike accuracy
60%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.19
TBD
Strike defense
55%
TBD
Takedown avg.
1.36
TBD
Takedown accuracy
29%
TBD
Takedown defense
82%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Rafael do NascimentoShane Campbell
155016001650202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (8%)
KO/TKO
9 (38%)
8 (67%)
Submission
6 (25%)
3 (25%)
Decision
9 (38%)

Combat Edge model read

Rafael do Nascimento60%
Shane Campbell 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Rafael do Nascimento a 60% favorite over Shane Campbell in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1635 vs 1634), separated by just 1 points.

Rafael do Nascimento enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Rafael do Nascimento finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Shane Campbell 63%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.