Combat Edge Intelligence

Rafael Natal vs Scott Askham

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

21-9-1Record20-6-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'3"
76,0"Reach75,0"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Renzo Gracie Jiu-JitsuTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Rafael NatalNow 1673
If they win+12→ 1685
If they lose-12→ 1661
Scott AskhamNow 1676
If they win+12→ 1688
If they lose-12→ 1664

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1660 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1623 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.10
Sig. strikes / min
3.03
48%
Strike accuracy
46%
2.48
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.52
58%
Strike defense
52%
2.55
Takedown avg.
0.44
34%
Takedown accuracy
18%
77%
Takedown defense
65%
0.50
Submission avg.
0.67

Trajectory

Rafael NatalScott Askham
17002015201620172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

4 (19%)
KO/TKO
12 (60%)
8 (38%)
Submission
2 (10%)
9 (43%)
Decision
6 (30%)

Combat Edge model read

Scott Askham56%
Rafael Natal 44%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Scott Askham a 56% favorite over Rafael Natal in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1673 vs 1676), separated by just 3 points.

Rafael Natal enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Rafael Natal finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Scott Askham 70%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.