Rafaello Oliveira vs Tim Wilde
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-8-0Record17-7-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'11"
TBDReach75"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
AMA Fight ClubTeamRenegade MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1617
If they lose-16→ 1585
If they win+16→ 1619
If they lose-16→ 1587
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1583 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1576 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Rafaello OliveiraTim Wilde
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tim Wilde56%
Rafaello Oliveira 44%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Tim Wilde a 56% favorite over Rafaello Oliveira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1601 vs 1603), separated by just 2 points.
Rafaello Oliveira enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Rafaello Oliveira finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Tim Wilde 47%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.