Combat Edge Intelligence

Rinya Nakamura vs Timur Valiev

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-1-0Record19-4-0
BantamweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'6"
68"Reach67"
136 lbsWeight138 lbs
FreelanceTeamDagFighter

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Rinya NakamuraNow 1710
If they win+16→ 1726
If they lose-16→ 1694
Timur ValievNow 1707
If they win+16→ 1723
If they lose-16→ 1691

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1596 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1560 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.53
Sig. strikes / min
5.19
55%
Strike accuracy
53%
1.38
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.33
67%
Strike defense
45%
3.72
Takedown avg.
1.73
90%
Takedown accuracy
40%
100%
Takedown defense
56%
1.65
Submission avg.
0.29

Trajectory

Rinya NakamuraTimur Valiev
16501700202320242025

Win method breakdown

6 (60%)
KO/TKO
5 (26%)
1 (10%)
Submission
2 (11%)
3 (30%)
Decision
12 (63%)

Combat Edge model read

Rinya Nakamura70%
Timur Valiev 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Rinya Nakamura a 70% favorite over Timur Valiev in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1710 vs 1707), separated by just 3 points.

Rinya Nakamura finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Timur Valiev 37%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.