Combat Edge Intelligence

Rob Broughton vs Thomas Petersen

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

16-7-1Record11-4-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'1"
TBDReach74"
258 lbsWeight257 lbs
Atherton Submission WrestlingTeamSpartan MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Rob BroughtonNow 1642
If they win+12→ 1654
If they lose-12→ 1630
Thomas PetersenNow 1639
If they win+16→ 1655
If they lose-16→ 1623

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1538 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1616 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.83
Sig. strikes / min
3.10
60%
Strike accuracy
60%
2.54
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.61
52%
Strike defense
55%
0
Takedown avg.
3.01
0%
Takedown accuracy
43%
27%
Takedown defense
88%
3.24
Submission avg.
0.38

Trajectory

Rob BroughtonThomas Petersen
165020162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (50%)
KO/TKO
7 (64%)
5 (31%)
Submission
1 (9%)
3 (19%)
Decision
3 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Thomas Petersen70%
Rob Broughton 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Thomas Petersen a 70% favorite over Rob Broughton in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Rob Broughton's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1642 vs 1639), separated by just 3 points.

Rob Broughton finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Thomas Petersen 73%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.