Combat Edge Intelligence

Rolles Gracie vs Steven Asplund

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

8-4-0Record7-2-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'5"
TBDReach78"
249 lbsWeight261 lbs
Renzo Gracie Jiu-JitsuTeamMcCune's Martial Arts

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Rolles GracieNow 1618
If they win+16→ 1634
If they lose-16→ 1602
Steven AsplundNow 1620
If they win+24→ 1644
If they lose-24→ 1596

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1545 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1537 · 9 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.30
Sig. strikes / min
19.93
33%
Strike accuracy
59%
3.38
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
7.49
55%
Strike defense
58%
2.30
Takedown avg.
0
10%
Takedown accuracy
0%
0%
Takedown defense
100%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Rolles GracieSteven Asplund
155016001650170020132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (13%)
KO/TKO
6 (86%)
7 (88%)
Submission
0 (0%)
0 (0%)
Decision
1 (14%)

Combat Edge model read

Steven Asplund70%
Rolles Gracie 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Steven Asplund a 70% favorite over Rolles Gracie in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1618 vs 1620), separated by just 2 points.

Rolles Gracie enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Rolles Gracie finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Steven Asplund 86%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.