Ron Keslar vs Will Davis
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-9-0Record3-2-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'9"
TBDReach-
170 lbsWeight161 lbs
American Kickboxing AcademyTeamDerby City MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1529
If they lose-16→ 1497
If they win+23→ 1546
If they lose-25→ 1498
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1538 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1528 · 5 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ron KeslarWill Davis
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Will Davis70%
Ron Keslar 30%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Will Davis a 70% favorite over Ron Keslar in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1513 vs 1523), separated by just 10 points.
Ron Keslar enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Ron Keslar finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Will Davis 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.