Combat Edge Intelligence

Ron Waterman vs Thomas Petersen

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

16-6-2Record11-4-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'1"
TBDReach74"
260 lbsWeight257 lbs
Colorado StarsTeamSpartan MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Ron WatermanNow 1637
If they win+16→ 1653
If they lose-16→ 1621
Thomas PetersenNow 1639
If they win+16→ 1655
If they lose-16→ 1623

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1577 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1616 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

0.84
Sig. strikes / min
3.10
50%
Strike accuracy
60%
1.37
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.61
43%
Strike defense
55%
4.19
Takedown avg.
3.01
69%
Takedown accuracy
43%
50%
Takedown defense
88%
2.79
Submission avg.
0.38

Trajectory

Ron WatermanThomas Petersen
165020072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (38%)
KO/TKO
7 (64%)
8 (50%)
Submission
1 (9%)
2 (13%)
Decision
3 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Thomas Petersen60%
Ron Waterman 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Thomas Petersen a 60% favorite over Ron Waterman in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1637 vs 1639), separated by just 2 points.

Ron Waterman finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Thomas Petersen 73%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.