Ryan Diaz vs Shane Mullen
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-14-0Record1-1-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'7"
TBDReach67"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Arizona Combat SportsTeamFight Academy Ireland
What's at stake
Shane Mullen is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — Ryan Diaz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1483
If they lose-11→ 1459
If they win+22→ 1522
If they lose-26→ 1474
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1510 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1515 · 2 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ryan DiazShane Mullen
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Shane Mullen66%
Ryan Diaz 34%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Shane Mullen a 66% favorite over Ryan Diaz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Shane Mullen holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1500 to 1470, a 30-point edge.
Ryan Diaz enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Ryan Diaz finishes 100% of wins inside the distance.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.